Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
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To log in to this site, your browser must accept cookies from the domain www.gep.com.May 2024
Global: -0.18
Asia: +0.07 +0.14
EU: -0.55 +0.07
NA: -0.30 -0.01
UK: -0.47 -0.30
After Four Years of Wild Swings From Shortages to Glut, Global Supply Chains Are Now in the Goldilocks Zone: GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
- Global supply chains are operating near maximum capacity, signaling steady outlook for the manufacturing sector
- Asian factories purchase more inputs to meet growing orders, increasing pressure on the region’s suppliers
- North American manufacturers report some difficulties meeting orders due to shortages of staff and critical materials
- Global transportation costs rise slightly, following a recent increase in oil prices more..
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
-0.18
May 2024
Asia: +0.07
EU: -0.55
NA: -0.30
UK: -0.47
Interpreting the data:
When the SCVI > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
When the SCVI < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
ASIA: Asian factories ramp up input purchases to fulfill surging orders
EUROPE: Continent’s industrial downturn continuing to ease
UK: Sharp destocking by manufacturers, with a reduced reliance on suppliers
NORTH AMERICA: Challenges in fulfilling orders due to labor and material shortages
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, June 13, 2024.
About the GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is derived from S&P Global’s PMI™ surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totalling around 27,000 companies. These countries account for 89% of global gross domestic product (GDP) (source: World Bank World Development Indicators).
The headline figure is the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index. This a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators complied by S&P Global.
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is calculated using a weighted sum of the z-scores of the six indices. Weights are determined by analysing the impact each component has on suppliers’ delivery times through regression analysis.
The six variables used are 1) JP Morgan Global Quantity of Purchases Index, 2) All Items Supply Shortages Indicator, 3) Transport Price Pressure Indicator and Manufacturing PMI Comments Tracker data for 4) stockpiling due to supply or price concerns, and backlogs rising due to 5) staff shortages and 6) item shortages.
A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply-chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply-chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the UK. The regional indices measure the performance of supply-chains connected to those parts of the world.
For more information on PMI surveys, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators, the GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index methodologies, please contact economics@ihsmarkit.com.
