Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
AUGUST 2024
Global: -0.37
Asia: -0.07 -0.14
EU: -0.53 -0.04
NA: -0.62 -0.51
UK: -0.14 -0.25
Global Purchasing Activity Contracting at Strongest Pace Since December 2023 as Manufacturers Worldwide Retrench: GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
- North American suppliers report strong rise in excess capacity and the softest demand in eight months, signaling flagging factory conditions in the U.S.
- Asian suppliers, who experienced growth in the first half of 2024, report spare capacity as Chinese procurement declines
- Europe’s manufacturing recession deepened in August, with Germany and France driving the continent’s downturn
- In contrast to the EU, UK manufacturers close to full utilization more..
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
-0.37
AUGUST 2024
Asia: -0.07
EU: -0.53
NA: -0.62
UK: -0.14
Interpreting the data:
When the SCVI > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
When the SCVI < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
ASIA: Suppliers Report Spare Capacity as Chinese Procurement Declines
EUROPE: Manufacturing Recession Deepens
UK: Manufacturers Are Fully Utilized
NORTH AMERICA: Strong Rise in Excess Capacity; Softest Demand in 9 Months
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, October 10, 2024.
About the GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is derived from S&P Global’s PMI™ surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totalling around 27,000 companies. These countries account for 89% of global gross domestic product (GDP) (source: World Bank World Development Indicators).
The headline figure is the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index. This a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators complied by S&P Global.
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is calculated using a weighted sum of the z-scores of the six indices. Weights are determined by analysing the impact each component has on suppliers’ delivery times through regression analysis.
The six variables used are 1) JP Morgan Global Quantity of Purchases Index, 2) All Items Supply Shortages Indicator, 3) Transport Price Pressure Indicator and Manufacturing PMI Comments Tracker data for 4) stockpiling due to supply or price concerns, and backlogs rising due to 5) staff shortages and 6) item shortages.
A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply-chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply-chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the UK. The regional indices measure the performance of supply-chains connected to those parts of the world.
For more information on PMI surveys, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators, the GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index methodologies, please contact economics@ihsmarkit.com.
