Skip to main content
  • login
  • contact
  • language
    • English
    • Français
    • Español
    • Português
    • Deutsch
    • 简体中文
    • 日本語
  • search
X
GEP Logo GEP Logo
  • Company
    • Leadership
    • Customers
    • Partners
    • Sustainability at GEP
    • News
    • Events
    • Culture
    • Mission & Vision
    • Awards & Recognition
  • Solutions
    • Strategy
      • Procurement Consulting  
        • Procurement Transformation
        • Digital Procurement Transformation
        • Opportunity Assessment
        • M & A Services
        • Strategic Cost Management
        • Supply Risk Management
      • Supply Chain Consulting  
        • Environmental, Social and Governance
        • Socially Responsible Sourcing
        • Supply Chain Strategy
        • Supply Chain Diagnostics
        • Inventory Optimization
        • Network Optimization
      Software
      • GEP SMART  
        • Procurement Software
        • Direct Procurement Software
        • Indirect Procurement Software
        • Digital Procurement Transformation
        • Master Data Management
        • AP Automation
        • Spend Management
        • SMART S2P Technology
      • GEP NEXXE  
        • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution
        • Supply Chain Planning
        • Supply Chain Collaboration
        • Supply Chain Control Tower
        • Should-Cost Modeling
        • Inventory and Warehouse Management
      • GEP CLICK  
      • GEP MINERVA  
      Managed Services
      • Procurement Outsourcing  
        • Source-to-Contract
          • Spend Analysis
          • Strategic Sourcing
          • Category Management
          • Supply Market Intelligence
          • Tail-Spend Management
          • Procurement Support Services
        • Procure-to-Pay
          • Cost Recovery & Invoice Auditing
          • Accounts Payable
      • Supply Chain Outsourcing  
        • Planning & Forecasting
        • Inventory Management
        • Logistics Management
        • Supply Chain Data Management
        • Supply Chain Risk Management
  • Industries
    • Automotive
    • Chemicals
    • Consumer Packaged Goods
    • Energy & Utilities
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Nonprofit
    • Industrial Manufacturing
    • Life Sciences
    • Oil & Gas
    • Retail
    • Telecommunications, Media & Technology
    • High-Tech
    • Media & Entertainment
    • Software, Social & Platforms
    • Telecom
    • Travel & Hospitality
  • Knowledge Bank
    • Digital Transformation
    • Software & Technology
    • Strategy & Planning
    • Operations
    • Procurement
    • Sustainability
    • Insights From the Top
    • COVID-19 Resource Center
    • Inflation Strategies
  • Careers
    • Join Us
    • GEP Per Se
    • Campus Connect
  • Partners
   
  • GEP Strategy ›
    • GEP Strategy
    • ‹ Back
      • Procurement Consulting ›
        • Procurement Consulting
        • ‹ Back
          • Procurement Transformation ›
            • Procurement Transformation
            • ‹ Back
              • Procurement Strategy
              • Org. Design & Implementation
              • Capability Building
              • Change Management
              • Governance & Performance
              • Processes & Policies
              • S2P Operations
              • Sourcing & Category Management
              • Technology
          • Digital Procurement Transformation
          • Opportunity Assessment
          • M&A Services ›
            • M&A Services
            • ‹ Back
              • M&A Clean Room
          • Strategic Cost Management ›
            • Strategic Cost Management
            • ‹ Back
              • Zero-Based Budgeting
          • Supply Chain Risk Management
      • Supply Chain Consulting ›
        • Supply Chain Consulting
        • ‹ Back
          • SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE
          • Environmental, Social and Governance
          • Socially Responsible Sourcing
          • Scope 3
          • PLAN
          • Digital Planning, S&OP, S&OE
          • Collaborative Planning
          • PROCURE
          • Source To Contract
          • Procure To Pay
          • MAKE
          • Inventory Strategy & Management
          • Operations & Manufacturing Excellence
          • DELIVER
          • Network Strategy & Optimization
          • Warehousing & Transportation Management
  • GEP Software ›
    • GEP Software
    • ‹ Back
      • GEP SMART ›
        • GEP SMART
        • ‹ Back
          • Procurement Software
          • Direct Procurement Software ›
            • Direct Procurement Software
            • ‹ Back
              • Bill of Materials Management
              • Data Analytics & Reporting
              • Inventory Management
              • Master Data Management
              • Quality Management
              • Supplier Collaboration Portal
              • Supply Chain Operations
          • Indirect Procurement Software ›
            • Indirect Procurement Software
            • ‹ Back
              • Source-to-Contract
              • Spend Analysis
              • Savings Project Management
              • Category Management
              • Contract Management
              • Savings Tracking
              • Sourcing
              • Supplier Management
              • Procure-to-Pay
              • Guided Buying
              • Procurement Portal
              • Catalog Management
              • Order Processing
              • Invoice Management
          • Digital Procurement Transformation
          • Master Data Management
          • Product Accessibility
          • AP Automation
          • Spend Management
          • SMART S2P Technology
      • GEP NEXXE ›
        • GEP NEXXE
        • ‹ Back
          • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution ›
            • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution
            • ‹ Back
              • Inventory and Warehouse Management
              • Logistics Visibility
              • Control Tower
          • Supply Chain Planning ›
            • Supply Chain Planning
            • ‹ Back
              • Supply Chain Control Tower
              • Should-Cost Modeling
              • Demand Planning
              • Supply Chain Bill of Materials
              • Supply Chain Direct Sourcing
              • Supply Planning
          • Supply Chain Collaboration ›
            • Supply Chain Collaboration
            • ‹ Back
              • Forecast Collaboration
              • Purchase Order Collaboration
              • Quality Collaboration
              • Capacity Collaboration
              • Quality Management Software
          • Supply Chain Control Tower
          • Should-Cost Modeling
          • Inventory and Warehouse Management
      • GEP CLICK
      • GEP MINERVA
      • Innovation ›
        • Innovation
        • ‹ Back
          • Emerging Technologies
          • Native to Cloud
          • Native to Mobile
          • One Unified Platform
          • Security
          • User-Centric Design
  • GEP Managed Services ›
    • GEP Managed Services
    • ‹ Back
      • Procurement Outsourcing ›
        • Procurement Outsourcing
        • ‹ Back
          • Source-to-Contract
          • Spend Analysis
          • Strategic Sourcing ›
            • Strategic Sourcing
            • ‹ Back
              • MRO
              • CAPEX
              • Logistics
              • Packaging
              • IT & Telecom
              • Energy
              • Direct Materials
          • Category Management ›
            • Category Management
            • ‹ Back
              • Contract Management
              • Supplier Performance Management
              • Savings & Compliance Tracking
          • Supply Market Intelligence
          • Tail-Spend Management
          • Procurement Support Services ›
            • Procurement Support Services
            • ‹ Back
              • eSourcing
              • Supplier Performance Management
              • Savings & Compliance Tracking
              • Sourcing Support
          • Procure-to-Pay
          • Cost Recovery & Invoice Auditing
          • Accounts Payable
      • Supply Chain Outsourcing ›
        • Supply Chain Outsourcing
        • ‹ Back
          • Planning & Forecasting
          • Inventory Management
          • Logistics Management
          • Supply Chain Data Management
          • Supply Risk Management
  • Industries ›
    • Industries
    • ‹ Back
      • Automotive
      • Chemicals
      • Consumer Packaged Goods
      • Energy & Utilities
      • Financial Services
      • Government & Nonprofit
      • Industrial Manufacturing
      • Life Sciences
      • Oil & Gas
      • Retail
      • Telecommunications, Media & Technology
      • High-Tech
      • Media & Entertainment
      • Software, Social & Platforms
      • Telecom
      • Travel & Hospitality
  • Knowledge Bank ›
    • Knowledge Bank
    • ‹ Back
      • Digital Transformation
      • Operations
      • Procurement
      • Software & Technology
      • Strategy & Planning
      • Sustainability
      • Podcasts
      • Insights from the Top
      • COVID-19 Resource Center
      • Inflation Strategies
  • Company ›
    • Company
    • ‹ Back
      • Leadership
      • Customers
      • Partners
      • Sustainability at GEP
      • News
      • Events
      • Culture ›
        • Culture
        • ‹ Back
          • GEP Core Values
          • Women@GEP
          • Diversity
          • GEP Cares
      • Mission & Vision
      • Awards & Recognition
      • Contact Us
  • Global Presence ›
    • Global Presence
    • ‹ Back
      • Americas ›
        • Americas
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • Español
          • Portugués
      • Europe ›
        • Europe
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • Deutsch
      • Asia-Pacific ›
        • Asia-Pacific
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • 中文
      • Middle East ›
        • Middle East
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • العربية
  • Contact Us
  • Careers ›
    • Careers
    • ‹ Back
      • Join Us
      • GEP Per Se
      • Campus Connect
  • Language ›
    • Language
    • ‹ Back
      • English
      • Français
      • Español
      • Deutsch
      • Português
      • 简体中文
      • 日本語
  • Rapid Response from GEP
  • BLOGS
  • Strategy
  • Technology
  • MIND
Contact Us
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

Breadcrumb

  1. HOME
  2. BLOG
  3. MIND
  4. CRUDE OIL MARKET HEADED TOWARD REBALANCING
Blog Image

CRUDE OIL MARKET HEADED TOWARD REBALANCING

February 28, 2019 | Energy & Utilities Blogs

A significant increase in the global oil supply had pushed oil prices downward in the final months of 2018. However, the outlook for 2019 looks more promising, although there is some amount of uncertainty. Trade disputes, a supply-demand imbalance in the U.S., and concerns over the general financial and economic health globally will be the major talking points for 2019.

What Happened in 2018?

The spot crude oil price averaged at $57/barrel in December 2018, witnessing a decline from an average of $81/barrel in October 2018, which has been the highest since October 2014. The U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela had drastically reduced the supply of sour crude, which tends to yield larger volumes of distillates that are of higher value. This move had created quite a stir from a demand perspective, as oil refiners from the emerging economies started looking out for other options, resulting in a massive supply-demand imbalance. The market also experienced record levels of crude oil production from the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia, owing to which an over-supply was witnessed, resulting in a decline in prices.

Major Factors Driving the Fall in Prices

The drop was majorly due to a significant increase in oil inventories. To tackle the rising supply of oil, OPEC countries announced a reduction in production from January 2019. However, a continued decline in prices indicates that a production decline might not be enough to counterbalance the rising oil production levels in North America. The U.S. now ships oil to South America and Europe. For economies such as South America and Europe, the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have led to the U.S. becoming the next best option for importing oil.

Moreover, the global oil demand has been moderately stable in comparison to the supply, resulting in rising oil inventory levels. Increasing oil production in the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries is contributing to a growing global oil inventory that is expected to reach 0.2 million barrels/day in 2019 and 0.4 million barrels/day by 2020. However, some of the oil inventories produced by Iran would not be available to the market, at least temporarily, owing to the U.S. sanctions.

Market Expectations in 2019

In 2018, the crude oil demand remained stable at 1.3 million barrels/day, while in 2019 it is expected to increase up to 1.4 million barrels/day. The demand from European and some Asian economies is likely to be relatively weak owing to the economic slowdown and trade conflicts.

In China, the crude oil demand in 2019 is likely to increase only by 0.34 mbpd due to the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. India will continue to depend on imports for its oil needs in the short term; however, the government is taking measures to reduce its dependence on imports by implementing several policies.

Factors to Watch Out For

China’s Economic health

One of the world’s largest oil consumers is expected to witness an economic slowdown in 2019. Moreover, the decrease in the Chinese producer index and consumer price inflation may hit the global and Chinese economy to a large extent.

Global Recession and financial turmoil 

2018 witnessed multiple sell-offs in the U.S. stock market due to fears of a financial crisis, slow growth and the trade war. In 2019, the health of the global economy will be monitored closely due to the U.S. yield curve inversion.

Iran Waivers 

Sanctions on Iran and the waivers from the U.S. are expected to be among the major factors driving the markets in 2019. The renewal of waivers that have already been granted to major buyers of Iranian crude oil is far from a certainty. Any decision to renew or repeal them will heavily impact oil prices.

Conclusion

Brent crude oil is expected to remain on the lower side as compared to 2018, averaging in the range of $61-64/barrel in 2019 and $65-69/barrel in 2020. However, the market may witness a surge in prices during the last quarter of 2019 and the early quarter of 2020 due to an increase in demand for light-sweet crude oil from refineries owing to IMO regulations.

WTI crude oil prices are expected to be in the range of $4-6/barrel, lower than Brent prices in 2019 and $4/barrel lower than Brent prices in 2020. These forecasts are based on the assumptions that crude oil production in the Permian Basin, and current constraints on the capacity to transport crude oil to West Texas and from Cushing, Oklahoma to refineries and export terminals along the U.S. Gulf coast, will continue until mid-2019.

 

Tags: energy

Add Comment +

FEATURED POST

...
Supply Chain Strategy Blogs

How to Effectively Monitor Scope 3 Emissions From Your Supply Chain

...
Supply Chain Software Blogs

From Cost to Resiliency: How Supply Chain Priorities Have Changed

    BLOG CATEGORIES

  • Marketing Blogs
  • Professional Services Blogs
  • Pharma and Life Sciences Blogs
  • IT & Telecom Blogs
  • Logistics Blogs
  • Chemicals Blogs
  • Energy & Utilities Blogs
  • Market Intelligence Blogs
  • Oil and Gas Blogs
  • MRO Blogs
  • Supply Chain Blogs
  • Facilities Management Blogs
  • Human Resource Blogs
  • Procurement Process and Excellence Blogs
  • Agro Blogs
  • Direct Materials Blogs
  • CAPEX Blogs
  • Packaging Blogs
  • Automotives Blogs
  • Healthcare Blogs
  • Corporate Travel Blogs
  • Metals & Minerals Blogs
  • Technology Blogs
  • Awards and Events Blogs
  • Category Management Blogs

TAGS

sustainability
Procurement Software
supply chain strategy
Inflation
Russia-Ukraine War

By checking the box below, you consent to GEP using your personal information to send you thought leadership content – such as white papers, research reports, case studies – and other communications. GEP representatives may contact you to provide additional information or answer questions.

If at any point in time you decide to withdraw your consent, you may unsubscribe by emailing your request to us at privacy@gep.com.

Please refer to the GEP Privacy Statement to understand how we manage and protect your personal information.

Terms of Use | Privacy Statement

Contact Us

Ask Us

Send us your question(s)

RFP

Request for a business proposal

Feedback

Share your thoughts, comments and suggestions

Demo

Schedule a live demo of our software

Discover
STRATEGY
Strategy
  •   Procurement Consulting
  •   Digital Procurement Transformation
  •   Strategic Cost Management
  •   Opportunity Assessment
  •   Supply Chain Risk Management
  •   Supply Chain Consulting
  •   Supply Chain Strategy
  •   Supply Chain Diagnostics
  •   Inventory Optimization
  •   Procurement Transformation
  •   Sustainability and ESG Consulting
SOFTWARE
Software
  •   Procurement Software
  •   Supply Chain Software
  •   Source-to-Contract
  •   Procure-to-Pay
  •   Supply Chain Planning
  •   Supply Chain Collaboration
  •   Supply Chain Visibility & Execution
  •   Supply Chain Control Tower
  •   Should-Cost Modeling
  •   Inventory & Warehouse Management Software
  •   Source-To-Pay Software
MANAGED SERVICES
Managed Services
  •   Procurement Outsourcing
  •   Strategic Sourcing
  •   Tail-Spend Management
  •   Category Management
  •   Procurement Support Services
  •   Supply Chain Outsourcing
  •   Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting
  •   Inventory Management
  •   Logistics Management
COMPANY
Company
  •   About Us
  •   Leadership
  •   Customers
  •   Sustainability at GEP
  •   Careers
  •   News
  •   Awards
  •   Partners
  •   Contact Us

Fresh Insights, Now on Your Phone

  • Dowmload On The App Store Button
Stay Connected
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

Latest Tweets

  • The #SupplyChain and #procurement #software market is in flux amid #MnA. If your software provider gets acquired, w… https://t.co/orQlKUZB4X

  • #SupplyChain #disruptions are a reality in today's unpredictable world. Learn how @gepsoftware has helped #SGS resp… https://t.co/jA2GnbWIBg

  • What steps can companies take to achieve #ESG goals effectively? Well, they can start with #procurement. Learn how… https://t.co/HGEfNyGdeD

  • #ElectricVehicles are a key part of the auto industry's plan to become #NetZero by 2050. But EVs aren't enough on t… https://t.co/YlEoys6vTA

  • Why did Asahi choose #GEP as their #procurement and #SupplyChain partner? Check out this video featuring Carmen Rad… https://t.co/RmstcfJXtm

  • GEPpers know how to have a good time! Check out a glimpse of our Winter Party at the GEP Prague office. We are hir… https://t.co/BqVK6XkpHv

  • #Inflation has dampened expectations for GDP growth and raised the risks of a #recession. What can #procurement lea… https://t.co/Hn1R5bxZXn

  • 4D seismic #technology is opening deep-sea #OilAndGas reserves for exploration, lowering costs and optimizing reser… https://t.co/Omq51vlEq7

  • The #GEP Europe Outlook 2023 Roadshow is coming to a city near you! Join us to learn the seven critical priorities… https://t.co/Hzv68et4Rr

  • GEP wishes a Happy Republic Day to all the Indians around the world.  We are #hiring. Explore our careers section:… https://t.co/RKTsyBfQFc

  • Sustainability Outlook for 2023: Trends, Insights and Actions 25 Jan 2023 https://t.co/58KIepy577

  • #Pharma companies are reshoring production, but shortages of active pharmaceutical ingredients make it a challenge.… https://t.co/a3uQJhn7tx

  • With uncertainty looming over 2023, there’s no end in sight to the challenges for #SupplyChain and #Procurement lea… https://t.co/O9tWELnt2i

  • Tight timelines and #COVID-related uncertainties made post-merger data ecosystem #convergence a tricky task for thi… https://t.co/RY6du0AP1D

  • Discover the keys to operating a strategic #procurement and supply function at an essential #PetroChemicals company… https://t.co/sJZmqhnWvS

  • What action should business leaders be taking on #sustainability in 2023? Join #GEP Founder and COO @JT_Turimella a… https://t.co/aerbJSp3GU

  • The pandemic and a labor shortage have exposed gaps in #pharma supply chains. Digital #SupplyChain transformation c… https://t.co/Bwvey5ObWn

  • GEP wishes everyone a very Happy Lunar New Year. May this Year of the Rabbit herald fresh starts and renewal of pro… https://t.co/Lnf3ZkO2zJ

  • Facing uncertainty and #disruption, #procurement needs agility — something #ERPs can’t provide. Here are 5 things t… https://t.co/ouGnhfW6wM

© Copyright GEP 2022. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Statement | Cookie Policy |   | Quality Policy | GEP Logo