Skip to main content
  • login
  • contact
  • language
    • English
    • Français
    • Español
    • Português
    • Deutsch
    • 简体中文
    • 日本語
  • search
X
GEP Logo GEP Logo
  • Company
    • Leadership
    • Customers
    • Partners
    • Sustainability at GEP
    • News
    • Events
    • Culture
    • Mission & Vision
    • Awards & Recognition
  • Solutions
    • Strategy
      • Procurement Consulting  
        • Procurement Transformation
        • Digital Procurement Transformation
        • Opportunity Assessment
        • M & A Services
        • Strategic Cost Management
        • Supply Risk Management
      • Supply Chain Consulting  
        • Environmental, Social and Governance
        • Socially Responsible Sourcing
        • Supply Chain Strategy
        • Supply Chain Diagnostics
        • Inventory Optimization
        • Network Optimization
        • GEP Total Inventory Management Solution
      Software
      • GEP SMART  
        • Procurement Software
        • Direct Procurement Software
        • Indirect Procurement Software
        • Digital Procurement Transformation
        • Master Data Management
        • AP Automation
        • Spend Management
        • SMART S2P Technology
      • Midsize & High Growth Enterprises  
      • GEP NEXXE  
        • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution
        • Supply Chain Planning
        • Supply Chain Collaboration
        • Supply Chain Control Tower
        • Should-Cost Modeling
        • Inventory and Warehouse Management
      • GEP CLICK  
      • GEP MINERVA  
      Managed Services
      • Procurement Outsourcing  
        • Source-to-Contract
          • Spend Analysis
          • Strategic Sourcing
          • Category Management
          • Supply Market Intelligence
          • Tail-Spend Management
          • Procurement Support Services
        • Procure-to-Pay
          • Cost Recovery & Invoice Auditing
          • Accounts Payable
      • Supply Chain Outsourcing  
        • Planning & Forecasting
        • Inventory Management
        • Logistics Management
        • Supply Chain Data Management
        • Supply Chain Risk Management
  • Industries
    • Automotive
    • Chemicals
    • Consumer Packaged Goods
    • Energy & Utilities
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Nonprofit
    • Industrial Manufacturing
    • Life Sciences
    • Oil & Gas
    • Private Equity
    • Retail
    • Telecommunications, Media & Technology
    • High-Tech
    • Media & Entertainment
    • Software, Social & Platforms
    • Telecom
    • Travel & Hospitality
  • Knowledge Bank
    • Digital Transformation
    • Software & Technology
    • Strategy & Planning
    • Operations
    • Procurement
    • Sustainability
    • Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
    • Insights From the Top
    • Inflation Strategies
  • Careers
    • Join Us
    • GEP Per Se
    • Campus Connect
  • Partners
   
  • GEP Strategy ›
    • GEP Strategy
    • ‹ Back
      • Procurement Consulting ›
        • Procurement Consulting
        • ‹ Back
          • Procurement Transformation ›
            • Procurement Transformation
            • ‹ Back
              • Procurement Strategy
              • Org. Design & Implementation
              • Capability Building
              • Change Management
              • Governance & Performance
              • Processes & Policies
              • S2P Operations
              • Sourcing & Category Management
              • Technology
          • Digital Procurement Transformation
          • Opportunity Assessment
          • M&A Services ›
            • M&A Services
            • ‹ Back
              • M&A Clean Room
          • Strategic Cost Management ›
            • Strategic Cost Management
            • ‹ Back
              • Zero-Based Budgeting
          • Supply Chain Risk Management
      • Supply Chain Consulting ›
        • Supply Chain Consulting
        • ‹ Back
          • SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE
          • Environmental, Social and Governance
          • Socially Responsible Sourcing
          • Scope 3
          • PLAN
          • Digital Planning, S&OP, S&OE
          • Collaborative Planning
          • PROCURE
          • Source To Contract
          • Procure To Pay
          • MAKE
          • Inventory Strategy & Management
          • Operations & Manufacturing Excellence
          • GEP Total Inventory Management Solution
          • DELIVER
          • Network Strategy & Optimization
          • Warehousing & Transportation Management
  • GEP Software ›
    • GEP Software
    • ‹ Back
      • GEP SMART ›
        • GEP SMART
        • ‹ Back
          • Procurement Software
          • Direct Procurement Software ›
            • Direct Procurement Software
            • ‹ Back
              • Bill of Materials Management
              • Data Analytics & Reporting
              • Inventory Management
              • Master Data Management
              • Quality Management
              • Supplier Collaboration Portal
              • Supply Chain Operations
          • Indirect Procurement Software ›
            • Indirect Procurement Software
            • ‹ Back
              • Source-to-Contract
              • Spend Analysis
              • Savings Project Management
              • Category Management
              • Contract Management
              • Savings Tracking
              • Sourcing
              • Supplier Management
              • Procure-to-Pay
              • Guided Buying
              • Procurement Portal
              • Catalog Management
              • Order Processing
              • Invoice Management
          • Digital Procurement Transformation
          • Master Data Management
          • Product Accessibility
          • AP Automation
          • Spend Management
          • SMART S2P Technology
      • GEP NEXXE ›
        • GEP NEXXE
        • ‹ Back
          • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution ›
            • Supply Chain Visibility and Execution
            • ‹ Back
              • Inventory and Warehouse Management
              • Logistics Visibility
              • Control Tower
          • Supply Chain Planning ›
            • Supply Chain Planning
            • ‹ Back
              • Supply Chain Control Tower
              • Should-Cost Modeling
              • Demand Planning
              • Supply Chain Bill of Materials
              • Supply Chain Direct Sourcing
              • Supply Planning
          • Supply Chain Collaboration ›
            • Supply Chain Collaboration
            • ‹ Back
              • Forecast Collaboration
              • Purchase Order Collaboration
              • Quality Collaboration
              • Capacity Collaboration
              • Quality Management Software
          • Supply Chain Control Tower
          • Should-Cost Modeling
          • Inventory and Warehouse Management
      • GEP CLICK
      • GEP MINERVA
      • Innovation ›
        • Innovation
        • ‹ Back
          • Emerging Technologies
          • Native to Cloud
          • Native to Mobile
          • One Unified Platform
          • Security
          • User-Centric Design
  • GEP Managed Services ›
    • GEP Managed Services
    • ‹ Back
      • Procurement Outsourcing ›
        • Procurement Outsourcing
        • ‹ Back
          • Source-to-Contract
          • Spend Analysis
          • Strategic Sourcing ›
            • Strategic Sourcing
            • ‹ Back
              • MRO
              • CAPEX
              • Logistics
              • Packaging
              • IT & Telecom
              • Energy
              • Direct Materials
          • Category Management ›
            • Category Management
            • ‹ Back
              • Contract Management
              • Supplier Performance Management
              • Savings & Compliance Tracking
          • Supply Market Intelligence
          • Tail-Spend Management
          • Procurement Support Services ›
            • Procurement Support Services
            • ‹ Back
              • eSourcing
              • Supplier Performance Management
              • Savings & Compliance Tracking
              • Sourcing Support
          • Procure-to-Pay
          • Cost Recovery & Invoice Auditing
          • Accounts Payable
      • Supply Chain Outsourcing ›
        • Supply Chain Outsourcing
        • ‹ Back
          • Planning & Forecasting
          • Inventory Management
          • Logistics Management
          • Supply Chain Data Management
          • Supply Risk Management
  • Industries ›
    • Industries
    • ‹ Back
      • Automotive
      • Chemicals
      • Consumer Packaged Goods
      • Energy & Utilities
      • Financial Services
      • Government & Nonprofit
      • Industrial Manufacturing
      • Life Sciences
      • Oil & Gas
      • Private Equity
      • Retail
      • Telecommunications, Media & Technology
      • High-Tech
      • Media & Entertainment
      • Software, Social & Platforms
      • Telecom
      • Travel & Hospitality
  • Knowledge Bank ›
    • Knowledge Bank
    • ‹ Back
      • Explore by Topic ›
        • Explore by Topic
        • ‹ Back
          • Digital Transformation
          • Operations
          • Procurement
          • Software & Technology
          • Strategy & Planning
          • Sustainability
          • Inflation Strategies
      • Explore by Type ›
        • Explore by Type
        • ‹ Back
          • Insights From the Top
          • White Papers
          • Research Reports
          • Bulletins
          • Case Studies
          • Webcasts
          • Blogs
          • Podcasts
          • Glossary
      • Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
  • Company ›
    • Company
    • ‹ Back
      • Leadership
      • Customers
      • Partners
      • Sustainability at GEP
      • News
      • Events
      • Culture ›
        • Culture
        • ‹ Back
          • GEP Core Values
          • Women@GEP
          • Diversity
          • GEP Cares
      • Mission & Vision
      • Awards & Recognition
      • Contact Us
  • Global Presence ›
    • Global Presence
    • ‹ Back
      • Americas ›
        • Americas
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • Español
          • Portugués
      • Europe ›
        • Europe
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • Deutsch
      • Asia-Pacific ›
        • Asia-Pacific
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • 中文
      • Middle East ›
        • Middle East
        • ‹ Back
          • English
          • العربية
  • Contact Us
  • Careers ›
    • Careers
    • ‹ Back
      • Join Us
      • GEP Per Se
      • Campus Connect
  • Language ›
    • Language
    • ‹ Back
      • English
      • Français
      • Español
      • Deutsch
      • Português
      • 简体中文
      • 日本語
  • Rapid Response from GEP
  • BLOGS
  • Strategy
  • Technology
  • MIND
Contact Us
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

Breadcrumb

  1. HOME
  2. BLOG
  3. MIND
  4. MEG FUTURES LISTED IN CHINA A DISCUSSION ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
Blog Image

MEG Futures Listed in China — A Discussion on the Potential Impacts

January 16, 2019 | Chemicals Blogs

A Long Road to Listing

On December 10, 2018, after six years of preparation since 2013, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) finally launched the monoethylene glycol (MEG) futures in China. DCE had first officially released its plan to list the MEG futures in 2016. During the listing process, DCE experienced opposition from polyester producers for many reasons.  

Polyester producers opposed the listing of MEG futures due to two major factors:

  • First, they were worried that coal-based MEG, which is mostly produced in China due to cost and natural resource constraints but typically has lower qualities, could pass DCE’s delivery standards to participate in the delivery through technical manipulations, thereby seriously impacting producers’ business operations.
  • Second, the futures of another important raw material to them, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), had already been listed, and therefore the listing of MEG could potentially add complexity to the market and increase price risks.

The first point turned out to be a miscommunication between DCE and polyester producers, as DCE later made it clear that its MEG delivery quality standards would prevent coal-based MEG from being mixed into delivery. For the second point, as time went by, polyester producers became more skilled in using various hedging tools on other raw materials, and therefore changed their attitudes toward the MEG futures and started looking at this as a useful tool for risk management.

As-Is Pricing Model

Downstream applications of MEG are highly concentrated in China, as up to 93 percent of the total volume goes to the polyester industry. Also, as the market share of MEG has been highly concentrated, with only a few large manufacturers (top five manufacturers are SABIC, DOW, Sinopec, FPG and SHELL, who account for about 55 percent of the total capacity worldwide), and because imported MEG accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total demand in China — pricing used to be dominated by these large players. Sales of MEG mainly went directly through manufacturers to downstream polyester producers. Spot sales via open markets were not commonly observed.

Purchasing pricings were usually settled monthly. The common practice for price settlement was sellers providing quotes at the beginning of each month, then referring to the monthly average price for adjustment, or by simply adopting the market monthly average price, depending on agreements with buyers. ICIS average prices, Platts average prices, Sinopec settlement prices and CCF average prices were the four major sources for price references.

It is worth noticing that long before the listing of MEG futures, a semi-futures pricing model was already observed in the market. In addition to spot trading, market participants leveraged multiple financial tools, such as “paper goods” (contracts that are essentially like futures), swaps and the Huaxi online trading center.

Impact on the Current Pricing Model

The development path of the PTA industry since the listing of PTA futures could be an important reference for the MEG industry, as both PTA and MEG are heavily purchased by the polyester industry, and polyester producers are mostly involved in the PTA futures trading for a considerable period.

Two possible changes in the current pricing model could be expected upon the listing of MEG futures:

First, a closer linkage between MEG futures and the spot market might be seen, as the market gradually moves to a “futures price + premiums and discounts” pricing model.

Second, basis trading would become more prevalent. In China, for other import-dependent commodities whose futures are listed — such as soybeans, polyolefin and PTA — throughout the years market participants have developed a pricing model that is essentially the combination of basis trading and options. Specifically, buyers and sellers agree on a certain quotation period (typically, the time required for shipment); within the period, one side (more often the buyer side in the case of China) has the option to select the futures price of a certain day as the basis price. Both sides use futures to make necessary hedges. As this model is effective against risks during shipments, given that MEG prices are relatively volatile, this model is expected to be more widely adopted.

Impact on Price Analysis Framework

Major factors affecting MEG prices include the macro environment, supply & demand, production cost, sales profitability and inventory level. The listing of MEG futures could mainly bring about two aspects of influence:

First, price relationships between MEG and PTA could be redefined. Being complementary goods, MEG and PTA have been showing continuous consistency in price movements. PTA was more often used as a hedging tool by industrial funds that usually held short positions on futures, while MEG, without a unified futures market, was more exposed to market speculations; investors, therefore, often held long positions. The listing of MEG futures, however, could possibly change the trading logic for both products; therefore, a revisit of price relationships could be necessary.  

Second, the macro environment would have a greater influence on the MEG market. Also, in addition to fact-based analysis, market expectations should be paid more attention to as financial attributes of the MDG market are reinforced upon the listing of futures.

 

Add Comment +

FEATURED POST

...
Inventory Management Software Blogs

Achieving Supply Chain Resilience With Total Inventory Management Solution

...
Supply Chain Strategy Blogs

Lithium-ion vs. Sodium-ion Battery: Which Is a Better Alternative?

...
Supply Chain Strategy Blogs

3 Best Practices to Tackle Inflation in Supply Chain Network Design

    BLOG CATEGORIES

  • Marketing Blogs
  • Pharma and Life Sciences Blogs
  • Professional Services Blogs
  • IT & Telecom Blogs
  • Logistics Blogs
  • Chemicals Blogs
  • Energy & Utilities Blogs
  • Market Intelligence Blogs
  • Oil and Gas Blogs
  • Supply Chain Blogs
  • MRO Blogs
  • Facilities Management Blogs
  • Human Resource Blogs
  • Agro Blogs
  • Procurement Process and Excellence Blogs
  • Direct Materials Blogs
  • CAPEX Blogs
  • Automotives Blogs
  • Packaging Blogs
  • Healthcare Blogs
  • Corporate Travel Blogs
  • Metals & Minerals Blogs
  • Technology Blogs
  • Awards and Events Blogs
  • Category Management Blogs

TAGS

sustainability
Procurement Software
supply chain strategy
Inflation
Russia-Ukraine War

By checking the box below, you consent to GEP using your personal information to send you thought leadership content – such as white papers, research reports, case studies – and other communications. GEP representatives may contact you to provide additional information or answer questions.

If at any point in time you decide to withdraw your consent, you may unsubscribe by emailing your request to us at privacy@gep.com.

Please refer to the GEP Privacy Statement to understand how we manage and protect your personal information.

Terms of Use | Privacy Statement

Contact Us

Ask Us

Send us your question(s)

RFP

Request for a business proposal

Feedback

Share your thoughts, comments and suggestions

Demo

Schedule a live demo of our software

Discover
STRATEGY
Strategy
  •   Procurement Consulting
  •   Digital Procurement Transformation
  •   Strategic Cost Management
  •   Opportunity Assessment
  •   Supply Chain Risk Management
  •   Supply Chain Consulting
  •   Supply Chain Strategy
  •   Supply Chain Diagnostics
  •   Inventory Optimization
  •   Procurement Transformation
  •   Sustainability and ESG Consulting
SOFTWARE
Software
  •   Procurement Software
  •   Supply Chain Software
  •   Source-to-Contract
  •   Procure-to-Pay
  •   Supply Chain Planning
  •   Supply Chain Collaboration
  •   Supply Chain Visibility & Execution
  •   Supply Chain Control Tower
  •   Should-Cost Modeling
  •   Inventory & Warehouse Management Software
  •   Source-To-Pay Software
  •   Midsize & High Growth Enterprises
MANAGED SERVICES
Managed Services
  •   Procurement Outsourcing
  •   Strategic Sourcing
  •   Tail-Spend Management
  •   Category Management
  •   Procurement Support Services
  •   Supply Chain Outsourcing
  •   Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting
  •   Inventory Management
  •   Logistics Management
COMPANY
Company
  •   About Us
  •   Leadership
  •   Customers
  •   Sustainability at GEP
  •   Careers
  •   News
  •   Awards
  •   Partners
  •   Contact Us

Fresh Insights, Now on Your Phone

  • Dowmload On The App Store Button
Stay Connected
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

Latest Tweets

© Copyright GEP 2023. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Statement | Cookie Policy |   | Quality Policy | GEP Logo