Clark, N.J., Aug. 14, 2023 – The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — fell to -0.50 in July, from -0.26 in June, indicating a further and accelerated rise in excess capacity across global supply chains amid weak global demand conditions and sustained destocking of warehouses.
In fact, global supplier spare capacity was nearly on par with its zenith during the pandemic in May 2020, rising for a fourth month in succession and indicating a considerable weakening of global economic conditions.
July data signalled a weak start to the second half of 2022 for the global economy, with demand for commodities, components and raw materials remaining depressed. Demand weakened in Europe especially as conditions in major markets such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France worsened. In fact, excess capacity at European suppliers reached its highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. In contrast, demand in North America fell to a weaker extent than in June, tentatively pointing to some divergence in the trajectory of the economies on either side of the Atlantic.
Commenting on the July data, Jonathan Kinghan, vice president, supply chain consulting, GEP, said: “We’re now in the 14th consecutive month of subdued demand across Europe, and our July data shows it’s getting significantly worse across the continent, in contrast to North America. Our data does not indicate a ‘soft landing’ in Europe. As a result, companies have greater leverage to negotiate favourable terms from suppliers for 2024 and 2025.”
Interpretating the data:
July 2023 Key Findings:
REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY
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The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, September 15, 2023.
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global’s PMI™ surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the U.K. For more information about the methodology, click here.
GEP® delivers transformative supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world’s best companies, including more than 550 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP’s cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.
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