Procurement enters 2026 amid easing inflation with slower but steady growth. Tariffs, labor shortages, and tighter compliance demands continue to test resilience as regional divergence shapes sourcing priorities.
Leaders face a year of recalibration. 2026 calls for procurement strategies anchored in intelligence, agility, and proactive risk management. The focus must be on data-driven planning, supplier diversification, and deep-seated alignment with sustainability and technology goals.
This podcast deep dives into the GEP Spend Category Outlook Report, 2026, highlighting key category forecasts and market outlooks across 19 categories, and what leaders should prioritize to stay competitive.
What’s Inside:
- Category-level insights for 19 direct and indirect spend
- Learn how tariffs and energy changes will influence sourcing
- Explore strategies to strengthen procurement resilience in 2026
Podcast Summary
Executive Overview: A New Era of Procurement Resilience
The 2026 GEP Spend Category Outlook signals a definitive shift: the era of reactive crisis management has ended, replaced by a strategic imperative for structural resilience and technological execution.
While the global economy is entering a phase of stabilization rather than aggressive expansion, the landscape remains fraught with complexity. Global inflation is projected to ease to 3.7%, and GDP growth is expected to hold at a stable floor of 3.1%, yet business leaders face an environment defined by tariff tensions, high debt loads, and geopolitical fragmentation.
Strategic Framework for a Fragmented Market
The central theme for 2026 is strategic alignment. Organizations are moving away from reactive measures in favor of data-driven planning that integrates sustainability and advanced technology into the core of their category strategies. Success in this environment requires strategies rooted in intelligence and agility to withstand protectionist trade policies and rigorous environmental standards.
Navigating Indirect Spend: Innovation and Compliance
In indirect spend, technology and sustainability act as primary drivers. The energy sector presents mixed pricing signals: while oil prices are forecast to slide to roughly $52/bbl due to oversupply, natural gas prices are expected to rise, and renewables will dominate new capacity investments.
The IT category faces rising costs due to AI premiums bundled into software and a shortage of advanced technical skills. This compels procurement to unbundle features to prevent "value leakage". Additionally, labor and HR strategies are being reshaped by the EU Pay Transparency Directive, which requires strict compliance and compensation equity. Capital expenditure strategies are also shifting, with a growing preference for Equipment-as-a-Service (EaaS) models to mitigate tariff risks and improve cash flow.
Direct Spend: Managing Volatility in a Fragmented Market
Direct spend categories face acute volatility driven by trade wars and climate instability. The chemical industry is navigating a "deceptive calm"; while demand is stabilizing, the U.S. is expected to see a 30% reduction in chemical imports from China due to tariffs, forcing a significant restructuring toward regional suppliers. Regulations such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are making carbon emissions a direct cost.
Key Commodity Drivers Discussed:
- Metals & Energy Transition: Copper supplies are strained by high demand from global energy transition projects.
- Agricultural Stability: Agricultural commodities face volatility from extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods impacting grain yields.
- Packaging & Circularity: Spend is increasingly driven by sustainability mandates, such as Scope 3 emissions reporting and plastic taxes, prompting a shift toward circular sourcing and material lightweighting despite volatile resin prices.
Why This Discussion Is Worth Your Time
Across all 19 categories, AI adoption has moved from experimentation to execution, becoming integral for predictive maintenance in MRO, demand forecasting in chemicals, and contract automation in legal services. However, the report warns that success depends heavily on data accuracy and advises firms to focus on practical, high-value use cases rather than unproven automation.
This podcast is essential for leaders who recognize that incremental tweaks will not address today’s risks. It offers a grounded view of how to build supply networks that are both regionally diverse and operationally resilient, capable of navigating the dual pressures of a rapidly evolving global market.