Tariffs Discouraging PET Imports? U.S. Buyers Should Focus on Building Regional and Domestic Sourcing Models

Tariff and trade pressures have reshaped PET sourcing economics for U.S. manufacturers.
Procurement teams now need to build resilience through regional and domestic sourcing models.
They should also enhance recycled PET capacity to stay ahead of sustainability pressures.

February 17, 2026 | Packaging 7 minutes read

Executive Summary

The U.S. PET market is caught between tightening sustainability mandates and growing trade costs.

Tariffs have pushed the cost of imported PET bottles nearly 40% above domestic production costs. Recycling rates improved to 33% (up from 29%), but mandates are racing ahead of supply capacity.

This creates three critical risks for procurement: tariff cost escalation, supply chain disruption and compliance exposure. Companies moving now can lock in pricing and secure recycled PET supply, while waiting creates margin pressure and regulatory risk.

Why the Tariff Shift Demands Immediate Action

The North American PET bottles market was valued at USD 8.3 billion in 2024, growing at 4.3% annually through 2033. The U.S. dominates at 80.4% of this market.¹

However, tariffs, anti-dumping penalties and retaliatory measures are challenging the long-standing assumption that offshore sourcing equals lower pricing.

For U.S. buyers, imports are now a strategic vulnerability, not an advantage. This requires procurement leaders to rethink supplier selection, cost modeling and sourcing diversification to maximize resilience.

Sustainability at a Crossroads: PET Recycling and Supply Risk

U.S. PET bottle recycling reached a 33% collection rate in 2023, up from 29% in 2022, with recycled content increasing from 13.2% to 16.2%. By 2030, over 60% of PET packaging will require recycled content, making rPET a strategic necessity.

However, the U.S. lacks the domestic capacity to meet this demand. California’s 25% PCR mandate by 2025, with penalties for non-compliance, sets a precedent for other states. With limited availability of food-grade rPET flake, manufacturers are increasingly reliant on volatile imports, amplifying costs, regulatory and reputational risks.

Ambitious brand commitments and intensified scrutiny of sustainability claims have also raised the stakes. Companies without strategies to secure reliable rPET supply risk higher input costs, compliance penalties and erosion of consumer trust.

Global Positioning: The U.S. and Its Competitive Landscape

China dominates global PET production at approximately 40% of capacity. The U.S. produces 15-20% (primarily in the South and Midwest), Europe approximately 15%, and India and Southeast Asia the remainder. However, the U.S. imports significant volumes of PET scrap and specialty resins, creating tariff and supply-chain exposure.

This import dependence matters. Domestic production alone can't meet U.S. demand, particularly for recycled PET feedstock. To reduce this exposure, companies should pursue three strategies: diversify supplier geography, strengthen domestic recycling partnerships and evaluate near-shore alternatives.

PET Category	% Imported (2024)	% In-House (2024)	Major Import Countries
PET Scrap	Heavy Reliance (on the rise)	Heavy Reliance (Stagnant)	Canada, Ecuador, Japan
PET Resin	Less Reliance	Heavy Reliance	Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Canada, Mexico
PET Finished Bottles	Much Less Reliance	Very Heavy Reliance	China, Germany

Tariff and Trade Dynamics: Cost, Supply and Strategic Implications

Imported PET appears cost-effective initially, but tariffs and duties dramatically affect landed costs, creating strategic risk for U.S. buyers:

China-Sourced PET (Shanghai to LA):

Base resin: $876/ton
Ocean freight $121/ton11
Tariffs (3% MFN + 10% Section 301 + 80% anti-dumping + 10% reciprocal): $902/ton
Total landed cost: $1899/ton

U.S. Domestic PET:

Base resin: $1270/ton
Tariffs: $0
Freight costs: $52/ton

Result: Imported PET is now 40% more expensive than domestic alternatives

Aspect	Imported PET (China)	US Domestic PET
Base Cost Advantage	-34% cheaper ex-works	—
After Tariffs & Freight	30-40% costlier landed	—
Lead Time Risk	6–8 weeks + port congestion	1–2 weeks (domestic transport)
Currency Exposure	USD/CNY fluctuation	None
Policy Risk	High (Section 301, anti-dumping renewals)	Low
Supply Assurance	Moderate (shipping delays)	High
Risk / Strategic Factors	• Lead time longer • Policy risk (AD/CVD reviews, retaliation) • Freight/logistics volatility • Currency & supplier reliability risk	• Higher base cost vs low untariffed import • Shorter lead time, lower logistics risk • Lower policy/trade risk

Export dynamics worsen domestic supply gaps. U.S. PET scrap exports to Mexico rose 32% YoY, driven by higher margins, draining feedstock for domestic recyclers and increasing reliance on imported virgin and recycled PET.

U.S buyers face a three-fold risk: rising import tariffs, export constraints on scrap and shifting reciprocal duties. As shown above, tariffs have erased the advantage of China-based PET imports. This environment reinforces the shift toward regional and domestic sourcing models.

The solution isn’t just optimizing costs, it’s building supply resilience. Procurement leaders must diversify suppliers, secure rPET as both a cost hedge and a lever for sustainability compliance and supply resilience, and emphasize regional and domestic alternatives.

Scenario Playbook: GEP’s Recommendations

The following chart presents six actionable pathways to help procurement leaders optimize cost, supply security and circularity in sourcing decisions.

Scenario	Description	Risks	Short-Term Strategy	Long-Term Strategy	GEP’s POV
1. High Reliance on Imported PET Resin (China, Vietnam, S Korea)	70–80% resin sourced from Asia; limited U.S. processing	- Tariff volatility, especially on China - Geopolitical trade disruptions - Long lead times and shipping costs	Secure short-term contracts or spot buys from low-risk regions (LATAM); establish 1–2 months buffer stock	Hedge resin prices for 3–6 months while expanding supplier base in LATAM, and U.S.; pursue domestic partnerships	High risk from tariffs and geopolitics; short-term savings don’t justify exposure
2. Balanced Resin Import With Strong U.S. Scrap Processing	30–50% resin imports complemented by robust domestic PCR infrastructure	- Requires capital investment - Dependent on consistent feedstock collection	Source PCR from nearby suppliers with rapid fulfillment; prioritize recycled content in non-critical SKUs	Invest in public–private recycling initiatives; partner with municipal programs; diversify supplier base (80-20 model)	Balances cost, supply security and ESG; strengthens resilience
3. High U.S. Virgin Resin + Domestic PCR Integration	Local virgin resin production with increased recycled content usage	- Limited domestic resin capacity - Developing PCR ecosystem	Source from niche U.S. producers or brokers; negotiate short-term PCR supply	Invest in PET capacity expansion in southern U.S.; build recycler partnerships and closed-loop programs	Supports onshore production and closed-loop supply; reduces external dependency
4. High Reliance on Mexican Recyclers (PET Scrap Exports)	Scrap exported to Mexico, and recycled resin re-imported	- Rising bale prices in U.S. - Supply instability due to external demand	Leverage current contracts for priority supply; pre-buy U.S. bales before price surges	Form joint ventures with recyclers; secure long-term, volume-based contracts	Provides short-term relief but limits price and supply control
5. Canada-Mexico Regional PET Loop	USMCA-based circular trade network with shared production and recycling	- Regional policy shifts - Resin grade capacity gaps	Maximize regional trade routes; tap current USMCA suppliers to bridge shortages	Establish regional circular PET agreements; invest in trilateral logistics and processing hubs	Reduces tariff exposure, shortens lead times, and improves ESG profile
6. Fully Onshore Circular Economy (U.S. Resin + Scrap Processing + Bottling)	End-to-end domestic PET value chain—virgin, PCR, and bottling	- High capital cost - Requires nationwide recycling reform	Partner with domestic recyclers and converters for pilot onshore loops.	Pursue state/federal incentives; create cross-sector consortia for national circularity infrastructure.	Maximum resilience, full circularity compliance and strong brand differentiation

Policy Outlook: What Comes Next?

Watch for these policy trends to shape PET sourcing in 2026:

Trade & Tariff Dynamics

Section 301 duties, reciprocal tariffs and other import restrictions will affect cost and supply reliability for imported PET. Tariffs for certain countries could increase by 25% or more, impacting import-dependent sourcing strategies.

Circularity & Recycling Mandates

Federal and state initiatives pushing for higher recycled content will drive demand for rPET and incentivize domestic investment such as California’s 50% rPET target by 2030. Supply constraints could drive price hikes and sourcing bottlenecks.

Domestic Manufacturing Support

Incentives for near-shore PET production and recycling infrastructure provide opportunities to reduce import dependence and strengthen supply resilience.

ESG & Compliance Focus

Integrating ESG into sourcing enhances regulatory advantage and market credibility. Non-compliance could expose companies to reputational and regulatory risks, especially in states with aggressive sustainability mandates.

Conclusion

The U.S. PET value chain is at a strategic inflection point. Companies that invest in regional sourcing, circular solutions and resilient supply networks can convert uncertainty into opportunity and reap competitive advantage.

Scenario planning, strategic partnerships and targeted investments will be key to managing trade and sustainability pressures. The result: a future-ready, cost-efficient and circular PET ecosystem that turns short-term disruption into long-term value.

Appendix/Sources

Harmonized Tariffs on Plastic⁷

HTS Code	Product Description	General Duty	Additional Duties	301 List 3
3923.30.00	Plastic bottles for conveyance/storage	3%	80%	10-25% (China)
3923.90.00	Other articles for packing of goods	3%	80%	10-25% (China)

Note: Under USMCA Canada and Mexico are exempted from import tariffs along various other countries under other treaties.

Reciprocal Tariffs(As of January 16^th, 2026)¹²

Country	Tariff (Current)
China	10%
Note^: Suspension continues; rates may rise to 100% pending trade negotiation outcomes
Mexico	0% (USMCA exempted)
Canada	0% (USMCA exempted)
Germany	15% minus 3% (General HTS Duty)
Ecuador	15%
Japan	15% minus 3% (General HTS Duty)
Vietnam	20%
South Korea	15%
Taiwan	15%
France	15% minus 3% (General HTS Duty)

PET Terminology Reference

Term	Definition
PET Resin	Virgin PET (non-recycled) or PET resin in pellet or granular form, used as the principal raw material for bottles, films and containers.
PET Scrap	PET waste that has been gathered from post-consumer or post-industrial sources, used as feedstock in recycling procedures.
rPET Flake	Cleaned and shredded PET scrap, utilized as an intermediate raw material in recycled PET manufacturing, including food grade applications.
PCR PET	Post-Consumer Recycled PET, derived from end-use products, available in flake, pellet or resin form; frequently utilized to meet recycled content regulations.